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The Guardian (U.K.)

AUSTRALIA IS PART OF A BLACK REGION; IT SHOULD RECOGNISE KANAKY AMBITION IN NEW CALADANIA. Australia’s un-nuanced support for French dominion is unhelpful in a region where decolonisation is unfinished business.

By Hamish McDonald

Kicking the can down the road is a time-honoured solution to deadlocks over statehood and identity: hoping time, consultation and money can end up in agreement.

But in New Caledonia, the French territory of 290,000 people in the Melanesian island chain to Australia’s north-east, the road is running out after more than two decades of can-kicking.

The time is coming – perhaps has come – for Australia to take a clearer position.

On 4 October, the second of three referendums on independence promised after 20 years of peace-building saw a sharpening divide in popular sentiment about staying under the French tricolour.

Just over 53% of voters said “non”to independence, down from 56.7% in the first referendum in 2018. The trend suggests that a third referendum expected in 2022 would see the “oui” vote rise from this month’s 46.7% to parity or even a narrow majority.

Such a prospect has some observers fearing a return to the communal violence seen in the late 1980s, when indigenous Kanaks sought to follow their Melanesian counterparts in Vanuatu, the Solomons, and Papua New Guinea into independence, and French settlers mounted armed resistance.

It culminated in 1988. Kanak militants took French police as political hostages on the small island of Ouvéa; French special forces went in, with significant loss of life. The horror led to a 10-year peacemaking effort, the Matignon accords, signed by French loyalist and Kanak leaders, extended by the 1998 Nouméa accords.

This month’s vote saw the territory still largely split along the indigenous-settler divide. The “oui” vote dominated in the northern part of the main island and the Loyalty Islands to the east, where Kanaks are concentrated. The “non” vote prevailed in the main island’s south around Nouméa and a smaller settler enclave.

The question is, where to now? Under the accords, a third referendum must be held if requested by at least a third of the New Caledonia congress, its legislature. The earliest request can be in April, for a vote in 2022.

The pro-independence Kanak parties have the required numbers and say they will demand it.

Loyalists, seeing where the numbers are trending, are starting to baulk at it. Sonia Backès, a conservative loyalist who is president of the southern region, has said it even carries the risk of civil war.

Some loyalist elements are now urging new negotiations on some kind of middle way, to avoid holding the third referendum. A more hard-line element wants a vote on scrapping the accord in 2022, bringing the 40,000 more recent settlers onto the local electoral roll and thus outvoting the Kanaks for good.

But some compromise is stirring on the Kanak side too. This week, Roch Wamytan, a Kanak who was a signatory to the 1998 accords and is now president of the territory’s congress, floated the idea of independence in association with France. This would perhaps resemble the ties of the northern Pacific states of Palau, Micronesia and Marshall Islands with the United States, which extends defence, funding and social services, while still holding their own United Nations membership.

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